000
ABNT20 KNHC 022352 CCA
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017

Corrected order of disturbances

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A sharp trough of low pressure, located about 80 miles east of
Great Abaco island in the northernmost Bahamas, is producing an
area of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Although tropical
cyclone formation is not expected due to hostile upper-level winds,
the disturbance is forecast to move westward at about 20 mph for the
next day or two, spreading locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty
winds in brief squalls across portions of the northwestern Bahamas
overnight, and across much of South Florida by Tuesday morning and
continuing into Tuesday afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea within the next few days.  Some slow development of
this system is possible by the weekend while the low drifts
northward into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart