000
ABNT20 KNHC 182341
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Harvey, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of disturbed
weather located about 500 miles east-northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands have become less organized since yesterday due to
strong upper-level winds, and satellite data suggest that the
surface circulation has become less defined.  Environmental
conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for
development during the next couple of days while this system moves
west-northwestward at about 20 mph, and the chances for tropical
cyclone formation appear to be decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, almost
a thousand miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, is producing
limited shower and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental conditions
appear somewhat conducive for gradual development over the next few
days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at
about 20 mph, but upper-level winds are forecast to become
unfavorable by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg