000
ABNT20 KNHC 170526
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gert, located several hundred miles southeast of Halifax, Nova
Scotia.

Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in
association with a low pressure system located about 550 miles east
of the Lesser Antilles.  Environmental conditions appear generally
conducive for development, and this system has the potential to
become a tropical depression while it moves westward across the
tropical Atlantic Ocean and into the Caribbean Sea on Friday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are expected to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles
tonight and Friday, and interests there and elsewhere in the eastern
Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A second area of low pressure located about midway between the
coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next few days while it
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds
are expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation
when the disturbance moves north of the Leeward Islands this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean near
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi