000
ABNT20 KNHC 160526
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gert, located a few hundred miles west-northwest of Bermuda.

A broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms.  This system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph,
and it is expected to cross into the Caribbean Sea on Friday.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive
for slow development of this system during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of
organization in association with an area of low pressure located
about 600 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Gradual
development of this system is possible before upper-level winds
become less conducive for development by the weekend. This system is
expected to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this wave while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15
mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi