000
ABNT20 KNHC 152324
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gert, located several hundred miles west-northwest of Bermuda.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located more than a thousand miles east of the
Lesser Antilles remains disorganized.  This system is expected to
move westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean,
crossing into the Caribbean Sea on Friday.  Some slow development
of this system is possible before it moves into the Caribbean Sea,
where environmental conditions are expected to be less conducive
for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands continue to show signs of organization.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development of this
system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20
mph.  Upper-level winds are likely to become less favorable for
development by this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday.  Conditions appear
conducive for some development after that time while the wave moves
westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch