000
ABNT20 KNHC 061732
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite data indicate that a broad area of low pressure has
formed over the western Caribbean Sea about 150 miles east of the
eastern coast of Honduras.  In addition, winds just below
tropical-storm-force are occurring to the northeast of the center.
The associated showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming
better organized, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will
likely form before the low reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
late Monday or early Tuesday.  After the system crosses the Yucatan
Peninsula, it is expected to move across the Bay of Campeche by
midweek where additional development is expected.  An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this low
on Monday, if necessary.  Interests along the coasts of Honduras,
Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of
this system as heavy rains and strong winds are possible at those
locations.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure located about midway between the Cabo Verde
Islands and the Lesser Antilles remains elongated, and the
associated showers and thunderstorms are not well organized. Some
slow development of this system is possible during the next several
days while it moves generally west-northwestward across the tropical
Atlantic at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi