000
ABNT20 KNHC 061131
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with a strong tropical wave located over the
west-central Caribbean Sea.  This system is moving
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm could form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea before
it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Monday or early
Tuesday. Even if formation does not occur before the system reaches
the Yucatan peninsula, a tropical depression or tropical storm could
form over the Bay of Campeche by midweek.  The Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft scheduled for today has been canceled, but a
new mission has been scheduled for Monday, if necessary.  Interests
along the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula
should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An area of low pressure located about midway between the Cabo Verde
Islands and the Lesser Antilles remains elongated, and the
associated showers and thunderstorms are not well organized. Some
slow development of this system is possible during the next several
days while it moves generally west-northwestward across the tropical
Atlantic at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi