000
ABNT20 KNHC 051753
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong tropical wave
located over the central Caribbean Sea are beginning to show some
signs of organization, and satellite wind data indicate that the
wave is producing a small area of winds that are just below tropical
storm force.  Additional development of this system is possible
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm could form over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea before it reaches the Yucatan peninsula late Monday or
Tuesday.  Even if formation does not occur before the system
reaches the Yucatan peninsula, a tropical depression or tropical
storm could form over the Bay of Campeche during the middle part of
next week.  Development would likely not occur if the system moves
inland over Central America and southeastern Mexico and does not
re-emerge over water.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if
necessary.  Interests along the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an elongated area of low pressure that extends more than a thousand
miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Although this system
has failed to consolidate so far, environmental conditions appear
conducive enough to support some development while this system moves
west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean at about 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg