000
ABNT20 KNHC 171734
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure located about 525 miles east-southeast of
Barbados is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph.  The associated
shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization
since this morning and the system still appears to lack a
well-defined center.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
some development before the system reaches the Lesser Antilles late
Tuesday or early Wednesday.  After that time, less favorable
upper-level winds are expected to hinder additional development.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles
beginning Tuesday.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
currently en route to investigate the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

An area of disturbed weather is located about 875 miles west-
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Some gradual development of
this system is possible over the next few days while it moves slowly
toward the west-northwest or northwest over the open Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown