000
ABNT20 KNHC 170548
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure system located about 800 miles east of the
Windward Islands is moving westward at about 15 mph. Associated
shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to show some signs
of organization, and environmental conditions are forecast to be
marginally conducive for some development of this system before it
reaches the Lesser Antilles in two to three days. After that time,
less favorable upper-level winds are expected to hinder additional
development.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

An area of disturbed weather has developed several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Some development of
this system is possible over the next several days while it moves
slowly toward the west-northwest or northwest over the open Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart