000
ABNT20 KNHC 180511
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization
during the past several hours in association with a tropical wave
located about 1200 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward
Islands. Some development of this system is possible during the
next two to three days before environmental conditions become
less favorable for tropical cyclone formation.  This system is
forecast to move to the west or west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph
toward the Windward Islands and northeastern South America during
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is expected while
it moves slowly northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday
and over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico early next week,
where a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form.
Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over portions of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands,
and western Cuba during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on
Sunday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Landsea