000
ABNT20 KNHC 172330
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the
southern Windward Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers.  Some development of this system is possible during the
next few days before environmental conditions become less favorable
for tropical cyclone formation.  This system is forecast to move
to the west or west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph toward the Windward
Islands and northeastern South America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is expected while
it moves slowly northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday
and over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico early next week,
where a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form.
Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over portions of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands,
and western Cuba during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on
Sunday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi