000
ABNT20 KNHC 171150
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the
southern Windward Islands is producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms.  This disturbance has changed little in organization
since yesterday.  However, some development is expected during the
next few days before conditions become less favorable for tropical
cyclone formation. This system is expected to continue moving toward
the west or west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical
Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
cloudiness and showers over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
adjacent land areas.  Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual
development of this large disturbance while it moves slowly
northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend, and a
tropical cyclone could form early next week over the southern or
central Gulf of Mexico.  Regardless of development, heavy rains are
likely to spread over portions of Central America, the Yucatan
Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven