000
ABNT20 KNHC 020541
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea, located about
150 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to move
quickly westward at about 20 mph.  Recent satellite data indicate
that the system is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph, but that it
still appears to lack a closed surface circulation. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical storm is likely to form later today.  An Air Force
Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system this morning.  Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds, perhaps to tropical storm force, will
continue over portions of Jamaica this morning and reach the Cayman
Islands later today.  Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the
western Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of
this disturbance.  For additional information, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Beven