000
ABNT20 KNHC 061748
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
centered over the eastern Bay of Campeche has changed little in
organization since yesterday.  This system is expected to move
west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during
the next day or two, and some slow development is possible.  After
that time, the low is expected to encounter a cold front, which
would make additional development unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the eastern
Caribbean Sea across the Lesser Antilles into the Atlantic is
associated with the interaction of an upper-level trough and a west-
northwestward moving tropical wave.  Development, if any, during
the next day or two should be slow to occur.  However,
environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable late
in the weekend, when the system is forecast to be near or north of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.  Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains are possible over the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven