000
ABNT20 KNHC 052344
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. This system is expected to move west-northwestward across
the Yucatan Peninsula into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the
weekend.  Some slow development is possible during the couple of
days.  After that time, the low is expected to encounter a cold
front, which would make additional development unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

A large area of cloudiness and showers near the Leeward Islands
extending eastward for several hundred miles is associated with the
interaction of an upper-level trough and a tropical wave. Although
upper-level winds are forecast to be too strong for development over
the next couple of days, heavy rain is possible in the Leeward
Islands while the system moves through the area.  By late in the
weekend, when the system is forecast to be near or north of Puerto
Rico, environmental conditions are forecast to become more
favorable, and some development of the disturbance is possible early
next week while it moves northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake