000
ABNT20 KNHC 271734
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Ida, located a little more than 1000 miles east-northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands.

An area of low pressure is located over the southern Gulf of
Mexico just north of the Yucatan Peninsula.  This system and
a broad trough of low pressure over the western Gulf of
Mexico are producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea
northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Upper-level winds are
expected to be only marginally conducive for development while this
system moves northward toward the northern Gulf Coast during the
next couple of days. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall over
portions of the northern Gulf Coast and southeastern United States
during the next few days. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft that was scheduled for today was canceled, but another
mission is scheduled for tomorrow, if necessary. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service and products from your local National
Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized since
yesterday in association with an elongated area of low pressure
located about midway between the central Bahamas and Bermuda.
Additional slow development of this system is likely during the next
day or two while it moves toward the northwest at 5 to 10 mph. After
that time, development is not expected due to unfavorable
upper-level winds. For more information on this system, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi