000
ABNT20 KNHC 252338
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Ida, located a little more than 1000 miles east-northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands.

A trough of low pressure located over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize
and Guatemala is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  While a weak surface low will probably form once the
disturbance reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico in a couple of days,
environmental conditions are not particularly favorable for
significant development early next week while the system moves
northward over the Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms over the western
Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda are
associated with an upper-level low and a surface trough.
Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur
while it drifts toward the north.  Upper-level winds are forecast to
become unfavorable for development after the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake