000
ABNT20 KNHC 172330
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Nine, located in the central tropical Atlantic.

Despite the apparent favorable environment, the broad area of low
pressure located about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands has not developed into a tropical cyclone as anticipated.
The system, however, still has the potential to become a tropical
depression during the next day or two while it moves toward the
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. After that time, conditions are
expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

A large area of disturbed weather extending from the eastern Gulf of
Mexico across the Florida peninsula and into the adjacent Atlantic
Ocean is associated with a broad surface low interacting with an
upper-level trough. This weather system will move generally
northeastward producing heavy rains across portions of Florida
through Friday. Surface pressures are already falling in this
region, and when system moves over the Atlantic waters within a
couple of days, conditions could become somewhat conducive for
subtropical or tropical cyclone development. For more information on
this system, see products from your local National Weather Service
office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila