000
ABNT20 KNHC 141748
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure system located several hundred miles west-southwest
of the Cape Verde Islands has produced little shower activity today
due to dry air nearby.  However, upper-level winds are expected to
be conducive for tropical cyclone formation and this system is still
expected to become a tropical depression during the next couple of
days while it moves generally northwestward across the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Widespread cloudiness and shower activity continues over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico in association with an area of surface
low pressure.  Some slow development of this system is possible
during the next day or two while it moves little.  After a
couple of days, a slow westward or west-northwestward motion toward
Mexico is expected development will become less likely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
located about 500 miles south-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands.
Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of
organization, and environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for the formation of a tropical depression over the next
few days while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart