000
ABNT20 KNHC 132340
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure
system located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and this
system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next day
or two while it moves generally northwestward across the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Shower activity remains disorganized in association with an area of
low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for
development of this low during the next couple of days while it
moves little.  After a couple of days, a slow west-northwestward
motion toward Mexico is expected and land interaction should limit
development.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system Monday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

A tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this wave over the next several days while it moves westward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi