000
ABNT20 KNHC 131146
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
producing a large area of disturbed weather several hundred miles
southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
could form during the next few days days while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A small low pressure system located about 975 miles southwest of
the Azores is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity.  Development, if any, of this low is expected to be
slow to occur while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward
at about 10 mph over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Minimal shower and thunderstorm activity is continuing in
association with the remnants of Tropical Storm Grace over the
northeastern Caribbean Sea and the Greater Antilles.  Upper-level
winds are not expected to be favorable for redevelopment of this
system during the next several days.  However, brief periods of
locally heavy rains and gusty winds are still possible across
portions of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, and the Bahamas during
the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward at
around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart