000
ABNT20 KNHC 210512
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA
HAS INCREASED AND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOW THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION IS
DEVELOPING. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED
TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD...AND THEN TURNS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA