000
ABNT20 KNHC 171136
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR OR
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN