000
ABNT20 KNHC 170510
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU OCT 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES
NORTH OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR OR ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART