000
ABNT20 KNHC 162344
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD NEAR OR ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
FAVORABLE FOR SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN