000
ABNT20 KNHC 161731
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR OR ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC....AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN