000
ABNT20 KNHC 160514
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...AND MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD NEAR OR
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART