000
ABNT20 KNHC 120540
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 
MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  RECENT 
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION...BUT IS PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM 
FORCE.  THIS DISTURBANCE STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A 
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
LOW PRESSURE AREA CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. 

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN