000
ABNT20 KNHC 112332
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...
60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. 

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN