000
ABNT20 KNHC 111743
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT...UPPER-LEVEL 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT OF 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A 
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO 
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. 

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART