000
ABNT20 KNHC 110536
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. HOWEVER...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFORE UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS BECOME EVEN LESS CONDUCIVE THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. 

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN