000
ABNT20 KNHC 100517
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT IMPROVED.
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. 

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN