000
ABNT20 KNHC 091735
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 9 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH