000
ABNT20 KNHC 090524
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED OCT 9 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SINCE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IS CURRENTLY DISPLACED WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY FRIDAY...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN