000
ABNT20 KNHC 081139
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS...AND IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE MOVING SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE WEEK...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AND ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 
TO 10 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN