000
ABNT20 KNHC 080533
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5
MPH.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE WEEK...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AND ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10
MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG