000
ABNT20 KNHC 072332
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
AND IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE WEEK...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF
BERMUDA...HAS BEEN MOVINH NORTHEASTWARD AND CLOSER TO AN ELONGATED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING 
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART