000
ABNT20 KNHC 071730
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS WEEK...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 TO 10
MPH.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN PUERTO RICO
AND BERMUDA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REMAIN DISORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL 
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN