000
ABNT20 KNHC 070533
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT ABOUT 10 MPH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF KAREN.  THIS DISTURBANCE IS BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH A
COLD FRONT TO ITS WEST...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF KAREN CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE
AROUND MIDWEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG