000
ABNT20 KNHC 062336
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE REMNANTS OF
KAREN...IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EASTWARD
AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
UNFAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF KAREN CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 400
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. 

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART