000
ABNT20 KNHC 030546
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY-
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOW
CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO.  WHILE THE CIRCULATION IS NOT YET WELL DEFINED...GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY
TIME TODAY AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...LESS CONDUCIVE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN