000
ABNT20 KNHC 020540
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED OCT 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JERRY...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS
DISORGANIZED.  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER
TODAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. 
SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
LATE THIS WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS COULD AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN