000
ABNT20 KNHC 012331
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JERRY...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS
DISORGANIZED.  SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
LATE THIS WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS COULD AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN