000
ABNT20 KNHC 011739
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JERRY...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOST OF
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
LOW.  SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS
WEEK...AND THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH