000
ABNT20 KNHC 011133
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JERRY...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE 
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK...AND THE SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH