000
ABNT20 KNHC 302316
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JERRY...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN
THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT. THESE RAINS WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY. 

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI