000
ABNT20 KNHC 300539
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ELEVEN...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
ACROSS THAT AREA...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...JAMAICA...AND
HISPANIOLA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA TODAY...AND
WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART