000
ABNT20 KNHC 292317
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ELEVEN...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF HAITI AND JAMAICA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN