000
ABNT20 KNHC 291731
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ELEVEN...LOCATED OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WELL TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND HAITI TODAY AND MONDAY...AND GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ARE ISSUED UNDER 
WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH